The southern border of the United States has long been somewhat terra nullius. Texas only joined the Union in 1845 having formerly been part of Mexico and an independent republic, and the neighbouring states of Arizona and New Mexico joined in the 20th century.
Nearly two hundred years later, American politicians are still trying to shore up their southern flank. Donald Trump, of course, pledged to “Build a Wall” and, when president, nearly five hundred miles worth of barrier was erected.
As we have highlighted in prior newsletters, the issue has also been at the top of the Congressional agenda recently, with President Biden’s immigration bill and the vote by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to impeach the Homeland Security Secretary.
During Biden’s presidency, illegal migration has reached record levels and become not just a problem for border states but northern states too thanks to southern state-led bussing programmes. As a result, immigration has now overtaken the economy as the main issue for voters - cue Trump and Biden’s “Border Wars” last week.
Texas, of course, is one of sixteen states (and American Samoa) holding a primary/caucus on Super Tuesday today as Americans, both Democrat and Republican, go to the polls from Alaska in the Pacific Northwest to Alabama in the Deep South.
Super Tuesday is a feature of the modern primary era - previously nominees were chosen in smoke-filled rooms at party conventions. It is “Super” because it is the day with the greatest number of primary contests in the whole campaign, with more than one-third of the parties’ delegates needed to secure the nomination on offer.
The likelihood is that Trump and Biden will sweep the stakes. The big question is whether Nikki Haley might pick up a victory or two, with her best odds in open primary states with higher levels of education and fewer evangelicals, like Colorado and Vermont.
Failure to win anything would surely be a red flag for donors and might spell the end of Haley’s campaign. And even if she does win something, by the end of the night Trump will almost certainly be within a few hundred delegates of the required total (1,215).
To be sure, Haley has pledged to continue as long as she is “competitive” and, while she did not fare as well in Michigan as she did in South Carolina, she did well enough in suburban areas to cause concern for the Trump campaign. Moreover, she has since won the Washington D.C. primary, her first victory in the race and indeed the first-ever victory for a woman in a Republican primary; secured her first prominent endorsements in GOP Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski; and raised $12 million in February.
But Trump also won a “trifecta” of contests over the weekend and doubled his delegate count, winning the Idaho, North Dakota and Missouri caucuses (the latter by 100%) as well as all of the delegates from Michigan’s chaotic GOP nominating convention. In his eyes and undoubtedly those of his supporters, Haley’s sole victory simply makes her the “Queen of the Swamp”.
As things stand, therefore, the current delegate count for the respective candidates going into Super Tuesday is:
Trump: 273
Haley: 43
On the Democrat side, Biden won by an overwhelming majority in Michigan but will be alarmed by the over 100,000 “Uncommitted” votes in the key swing state, which is often decided by tens of thousands of votes. Not to mention the fact that opposition to him is concentrated amongst young and non-white voters, the “multiracial coalition” which took him to power in 2020.
Things are hotting up now, with plenty more primaries in the weeks to come. By April, we will be past the halfway mark in the primary season. Meanwhile, another government shutdown looms, ceasefire negotiations are ongoing in the Middle East and, on Thursday, Biden will deliver his final State of the Union address before November.
With Trump securing wins at the Supreme Court regarding presidential immunity and confirming that he can be on the ballot nationwide, by the end of this week he might well be the Republican nominee in all but name.