It was only a matter of time before the âKamalamentumâ petered out. The Big Mo is, by its very nature, transitory. But while pundits from The New York Times to Nigel Farage agree that the âHarris Honeymoonâ is over, few foresaw the âKalamageddonâ now engulfing the vice presidentâs campaign.
Having enjoyed a seven-point lead when she first entered the race, we are now in âtossup territoryâ according to the famed psephologist Nate Silver whose presidential election forecast Trump now leads. Even FiveThirtyEight, the site which he founded and has since exited, currently predicts that âHarris and Trump have about an even chance to winâ.
In fact, Trump has taken a narrow lead for the first time in FiveThirtyEightâs forecast and, according to its latest polling averages, currently leads in three of the seven battleground states with three others evenly split and Harris leading in only one and by only one percentage point.
Whilst it is perhaps too early to use the âlâ word â landslide - the Republicans are on track to win control of all three branches of government in November, according to Polymarket. Even Harris-Walz campaign emails advise supporters that âif the election were held today, we might very well loseâ.
No wonder senior Democrats are expressing alarm for the first time since the summer, when they forced President Biden from the race. Bill Clintonâs former Svengali, James Carville, has said that he is âvery, very concernedâ while, at the funeral of Ethel Kennedy, the mother of RFK Jr., this week, Biden was caught telling Barack Obama that âsheâs not as strong as meâ.
To paraphrase Hillary Clinton: what happened? Harris was not helped, of course, by the last-minute nature of Bidenâs withdrawal, which made her campaign, which launched only in July, one of the shortest in presidential history. Because of Bidenâs initial candidacy, Harris was also not tested by the primary process, something which she was quickly eliminated from in 2020.
Of course, as with any election campaign controversial revelations have also emerged, including that Harris plagiarised Wikipedia and Martin Luther King Jr. in her book Smart On Crime and that her husband, Doug Emhoff, had an affair during his first marriage.
Such transgressions might pale in comparison to her opponentâs but an âOctober Surpriseâ may yet be in store. Already, what former British prime minister, Harold Macmillan, called âevents, dear boy, eventsâ have reared their head from the Middle East to Hurricane Season.
The problem for Harris is that she is number two in the incumbent administration. The claim of her running mate, Tim Walz, that America cannot have âfour more years of thisâ is undermined by the fact Harris herself has been vice-president for four of them.
According to recent polling, a majority of Americans think that the country is âon the wrong trackâ and, going back to 1980, the presidentâs party has never won another term in the face of such numbers.
Even the Teamsters and the Arab American Political Action Committee have not endorsed the Democrats (for the first time since 1996 and 1998 respectively). This could prove crucial in the âBlue Wallâ states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which, given Trumpâs strength in the Sun Belt, Harris needs to perform well in and yet, as mentioned, only leads in one.
Then there is Harrisâs communications strategy. Not only has the Trump-Vance ticket given nearly twice as many interviews as Harris-Walz but Harrisâs belated media spree in recent weeks has been unanimously greeted with words like âword saladâ and âtestyâ.
To make things worse, the input of Democratic allies on the campaign trail in recent days has backfired, with Obama drawing criticism for comments about black men â a demographic Harris is already struggling with â and Clinton seemingly criticising the current administrationâs border policy, something which has been weaponised by Republicans.
As for Walz, his car crash on the debate stage earlier this month and much-publicised pheasant hunting trip last weekend have turned him from âAmericaâs Coachâ to âTampon Timâ. Last month, members of his own family were photographed wearing Trump t-shirts and even Biden was pictured wearing a Trump cap.
To be sure, all is not lost for Harris. She still leads nationally and her campaign has raised $1 billion in a record amount of time. She has both out-raised and outspent Trump and has the support of Wall Street and Hollywood. The medical records she released last weekend are a picture of health compared to Trump, the oldest presidential candidate in history.
The economic fundamentals also look good: the Biden-Harris administration has created a record number of jobs, inflation is falling, the stock market is at record highs and the nationwide port strike has been averted.
With over ten million Americans having already voted, including a record amount in the key state of Georgia, Harrisâs recent travails might also count for less. Lest we forget that the so-called âNostradamusâ Allan Lichtman predicts a Harris win.
The problem for Harris is that she is in a similar position to that of Hillary in 2016. In both cases, their opponent was âTeflonâ Trump, a man who is running Harris to the wire despite earning a criminal conviction this year and surviving three assassination attempts. In fact, he is currently more popular than he was at this point in 2016 and 2020.
The 2024 election looks set to be the closest since 2000 when Al Gore, the less folksy vice president to Clinton, lost the key state of Florida by just 537 votes. His more charismatic opponent, George W. Bush, lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College via the Sun Belt states.
Not for nothing have the Democrats borrowed one hundred staff from the British Labour Party which won its first general election in fourteen years this year by pursuing a so-called âMing vaseâ (i.e. cautious) strategy.
With just over two weeks until Election Day, Harris is far from âretardedâ, as Trump has called her, but her campaign just might be. He has already defeated one Indian American woman this cycle and might yet defeat another.