Foreign Entanglements
How will Gaza, Iran and the US-Mexico border affect the presidential election?
With Congress wrangling over President Biden’s immigration bill, three American servicemen killed by a drone strike in Jordan and the US responding with military attacks in Iraq and Syria, what George Washington called “foreign entanglements” have come to the fore.
The official name of the bill package currently being considered by Congress, which would cover both immigration reform and further aid for Ukraine, is the [Bipartisan Senate] National Security Agreement.
It is a timely reminder that external events can have an important impact on presidential elections. Famously, George Bush benefitted from patriotic fervour after 9/11 and, in 1980, Jimmy Carter lost in large part due to his failure to secure the release of American hostages in Iran.
Could there be a “rally around the flag” effect for Biden? He would need it considering recent polling from CNN, NBC and Quinnipiac in which he is behind both Trump and Haley, the latter by double digits. Perhaps more concerning, while he won the South Carolina primary at the weekend with a commanding 96% of the vote, it was with a turnout that was down 75% from 2020.
Policy-wise, much separates Trump and Biden in foreign affairs (unlike economic policy, for instance). Trump is an “America First” isolationist who threatened to withdraw the US from NATO and sides unequivocally with Israel and against Iran. In contrast, Biden is an “America is back” internationalist who has spent over $100 billion in aid for Ukraine and has criticised Israel’s prosecution of its war against Hamas. Haley, meanwhile, is the former UN ambassador whose husband served in the military and is more in line with the hawkish Republicans of old. Indeed, according to the Trump campaign she is the “warmonger” candidate.
Given the importance of immigration to voters, all three candidates are, unsurprisingly, touting their credentials on border security. Trump is promising mass deportation of undocumented migrants, Haley is touting her passing of “one of the toughest immigration laws in the country” when a governor, and Biden of course is hoping for the passage of his immigration bill in the Senate. Were it to pass, it would be a big win for the Democrats - hence why Trump spent much of last week personally calling Republican Senators to stop them supporting it.
Of course, last week Trump lost his defamation case against E. Jean Carrol and was ordered to pay $83 million in damages. As a billionaire who raised nearly $50 million in campaign donations in the last quarter of 2023, this won’t bankrupt him. But new filings from the Federal Election Commission show that he spent almost the same amount on legal fees last year. In fact, he has spent more than he has taken in donations and Biden’s coffers are currently stronger.
There have certainly been small wins for Trump and not just in Iowa and New Hampshire. The election interference criminal trial involving him, which was due to take place the day before Super Tuesday, has been postponed, while a similar case in Georgia has been derailed by revelations that two of its prosecutors are in a relationship.
But his mounting attacks on Haley seem to have backfired given that her campaign has raised over $4 million in the past few weeks, not to mention a $5 million contribution from billionaire Ken Griffin. And the polls in South Carolina have narrowed slightly with Haley gaining five points or so, although she is still thirty points behind.
Elsewhere, Joe Manchin is still playing the long game regarding his potential third-party candidacy; conspiracy theories are circulating that Taylor Swift is plotting to publicly endorse the Biden campaign at the Super Bowl and that Biden will even be replaced as the Democrat nominee by Michelle Obama; and reportedly Robert Kennedy Jr. was offered the vice-presidential slot by none other than Donald Trump.